// STRATEGIES

Trading Strategies

Four strategies running in parallel. One validated on live capital, three in paper testing.

4H Mean Reversion

VALIDATED

4-hour mean reversion on crypto perpetuals. Enters counter-trend when Z-score exceeds threshold, exits on reversion to mean.

Information Coefficient
0.06 - 0.11
Win Rate
49.3%
4h_reversal

Whale Copy

PAPER

Tracks large wallet movements on Hyperliquid. Mirrors directional bias of consistently profitable whale addresses.

Information Coefficient
N/A
Win Rate
TBD
whale_copy

Volatility Spike

PAPER

Detects sudden implied vol expansions and positions for mean reversion in realized vol. Captures the vol premium decay.

Information Coefficient
N/A
Win Rate
TBD
vol_spike

OI Divergence

PAPER

Identifies divergence between open interest changes and price action. Signals over-leveraged moves likely to reverse.

Information Coefficient
N/A
Win Rate
TBD
oi_divergence

How It Works

The 4H mean reversion signal, step by step.

01

Compute Z-Score

Calculate the deviation of current price from the 4-hour rolling mean, normalized by standard deviation. Extreme Z-scores indicate overextension.

02

Confirm Regime

Check regime model output. Mean reversion only fires in FLAT or TRANSITION regimes. In TRENDING regimes, the signal is suppressed to avoid fighting momentum.

03

Risk Gate

Pass through Kelly criterion sizing, circuit breaker check, and TP:SL validation. If any layer rejects, the trade is blocked. No overrides.

04

Execute + Monitor

Place maker order with ATR-based stop loss and take profit. Position monitor activates trailing stop at +0.5% profit, trailing 2% from peak.

Information Coefficient by Asset

Predictive power of the 4H reversal signal varies by asset. Higher IC = stronger edge.

DOGE
11.2%
LINK
10.6%
BTC
8.8%
SOL
8.7%
ETH
6.3%