Why 49% Win Rate Makes Money
Win rate is vanity. Expectancy is sanity. How a sub-50% strategy generates positive EV through proper TP:SL ratios.
Sub-30ms heartbeat tracking across all VPS nodes. Live P&L, position updates, and system health.
Multi-timeframe regime detection with momentum, mean-reversion, and volatility models.
Kelly-based position sizing, ATR trailing stops, circuit breakers, and daily loss limits.
Distributed infrastructure across 3 VPS nodes with AI-powered decision making and sub-second execution.
A multi-strategy algo trading engine with institutional-grade risk management, built from scratch.
Sub-second execution on Hyperliquid. Maker orders at 0.5bps. ATR trailing stops, position scaling, and automatic TP/SL placement.
Fractional Kelly criterion sizing (25% of raw Kelly). Statistical circuit breakers using binomial distribution. 5% daily loss limit with global stop.
8 specialized AI agents with memory, learning, and self-improvement. LLM routing dispatches to cheapest suitable model per task.
What I learned the hard way building and running live trading systems.
Win rate is vanity. Expectancy is sanity. How a sub-50% strategy generates positive EV through proper TP:SL ratios.
20,000 backtested trades later: anything below 4-hour timeframes is noise. The fees alone will eat you alive.
Using binomial distribution to detect when losses exceed normal variance. The math behind knowing when to stop.
Strategy teardowns, code walkthroughs, and live trading transparency.
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